Technology has the potential to bring us a mind-blowing world of innovation, from self-driving cars to re-engineered food, and even colonies on Mars. Elon Musk and Steve Jurvetson are two of tech’s most influential minds. Here’s my BBC World Business Report on their vision of the future. Spoiler alert: It isn’t all good news.
The report aired today (May 6, 2015) on the BBC World Service. Listen to the podcast from 11:00
BBC Presenter, Mike Johnson: Colonies on Mars, self driving electric cars, re-engineered food… How will technology change our lives in the decades ahead? It’s certainly bringing us an extraordinary world of innovation. It’s known in the jargon these days as “future shock.” Many worry about the consequences, especially the toll that increased use of robots will take on jobs. Alison van Diggelen, creator and host of the Fresh Dialogues interview series reports from California
Audio: [Sound of Tesla Factory welding, metal on metal, robot sounds…]
van Diggelen: It was here in Silicon Valley, in 2012, the first Model S rolled off the production line at the Tesla Factory.
Tesla’s Gilbert Passin: See the robot is bringing the flat panel into the press…they are in slow motion …[factory sounds]
van Diggelen: The pioneering carmaker, Tesla Motors, has now produced over 70,000 all-electric cars and is gearing up for the release of the new Model X, a futuristic SUV with falcon wing doors. This summer, it will also start shipping Tesla Energy storage batteries for homes, businesses and utilities. Gilbert Passin leads the Tesla manufacturing team and is proud of the numerous red robots at the factory.
Passin: What we do here is really kick-ass. I mean, look around…. does it look to you like a boring old-fashioned car factory?
van Diggelen: Absolutely not.
Passin: We’re using the latest and greatest and even in some cases innovate in manufacturing techniques.
van Diggelen: The Tesla production team is so fond of its heavy lifting robots, they’re named after action heroes like Wolverine, Vulcan and Colossus.
Venture Capitalist, Steve Jurvetson drives the first Model S to come off Tesla’s production line. He has a reputation for putting his money where his mouth is and backing successful startups like Hotmail, SpaceX, and PlanetLabs. He’s a self-described “raging techno optimist” and has a front row seat on the future of innovation. I asked him what we should expect in the next 50 years…
Steve Jurvetson: (If you look far enough in the future) All vehicles will be electric. We’ll have a Mars colony. We will have to grow more food than since the beginning of agriculture. That will be largely driven by GMOs and a variety of roboticized forms of farming…and moving off meat production in the way we think of it: killing animals. We will “grow” meat in different ways within 50 years and that will have pretty profound effects on Greenhouse Gases to… everything. Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, are changing the world. In that 50 year horizon, the world’s going to look markedly different than today. Future shock is a perpetually occurring phenomenon.
van Diggelen: As well as being CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk leads SpaceX, the aerospace company that recently launched its 6th mission to resupply the International Space Station.
Ambi: [SpaceX rocket countdown and blast off]
Tesla announcer: 5,4,3,2,1…and lift off…the Falcon soars from its perch to the international space station. [Rocket blasting….]
He envisioned a philanthropic mission to Mars to install a greenhouse…and jumpstart the space race. Here’s Musk:
Musk: You’d have this great shot of a little greenhouse with little green plants on a red background. I thought that would get people excited…you have to imagine “the money shot.” So this would be the furthest that life’s ever travelled, the first life on Mars and I thought maybe that would result in a bigger budget for NASA and then we could resume the journey…
van Diggelen: Of course, in order to get to Mars, Musk and his team would have to invent a low cost space rocket. Enter, SpaceX.
Jurvetson: Being a multi planetary species, (having a colony on Mars and probably the moon) is one of those “greatest hits” in human evolution, up there with the opposable thumb…the neuron, multi-cellular beings.
van Diggelen: These grand visions are all very well, but what will life be like here on planet earth in 50 years?
For now, the tech economy is bringing manufacturing back to the US and Europe, but in the long run robots will take our jobs. This has huge implications for the world economy, business and public policy. Jurvetson admits he’s deeply worried about the growing rich-poor divide that tech innovation is exacerbating. He doesn’t pull his punches…
Jurvetson: Imagine the robots of the future… It’s inevitable the jobs will go away…and we need to prepare for that future…talk about it now so that the transition isn’t violent and horrible….40% unemployment, 80% unemployment…we’re gonna get there.
Last night, Tesla CEO Elon Musk showed he’s getting more like Steve Jobs by the minute. Just as Jobs helped revolutionize the personal computer, music and phone industries; Musk has helped revolutionize the world of e-commerce, space exploration and electric cars. And now he’s set his sights on the energy sector. With this announcement, Musk has burnished his revolutionary status by revealing that Tesla Motors is no longer “just” a car company, but an energy company. You can read the 12 key facts of last night’s presentation here. Some commentators are calling it the start of an energy storage revolution, but there are no guarantees.
Here are some highlights of our conversation (edited for length and clarity):
Fergus Nicholl: Elon Musk…you’ve met the man. How would you introduce him to a global audience?
Alison van Diggelen: He is a genius inventor…the (Thomas) Edison of our day…incredibly sharp minded, a big old geek, but he’s very personable. He has grand visions and wants to make it happen…he has the ability to paint a picture, and motivate a team and build a team. He’s changed the world of electric vehicles and he’s now planning to change the world of power, utilities and battery storage.
Fergus Nicholl: That is an application that would apply in many many countries, beyond India. The idea that you could weather blackouts, brownouts…you’re saying you could bank it, use it when you need it and not necessarily get hit by little domestic crises?
Revathy Ashok: Absolutely. It’s pretty common in India for a normal household to have a one to three hour battery back up.For the last 12 hours it’s been raining heavily…we’ve had no power at all, so all connectivity is lost. I have three hours of battery backup which is all gone…
Alison van Diggelen: The main idea is, if you’ve got solar panels on your roof, or windpower, your house can become a power station with the addition of these batteries. No matter what natural disaster, earthquake etc. is happening, you will have a reliable source of power. You won’t need the utility anymore. You can just disconnect from the grid, go “off-grid.” So that’s the huge potential and that’s why people are really excited about tonight’s announcement.
Fergus Nicholl: The Gigafactory (in Nevada)…tell us more about it…a net zero energy factory…it’s quite an extraordinary project.
Alison van Diggelen: Yes, a net zero energy project means it will be solar powered itself and will produce as much energy as it uses to make these batteries. It’s definitely quite revolutionary and has Elon Musk’s fingers all over it.
Fergus Nicholl: In this picture, the entire roof is vast solar panels, kind of like a solar farm laid perfectly flat. I guess Nevada is probably the best place to be for that?
Alison van Diggelen: Indeed, several states were actually fighting over it. California was hoping to get it too, but Nevada won out because they gave some very juicy incentives…The Gigafactory will produce more batteries, once it’s fully operational, than the world’s supply of batteries in 2013. That’s what they’re predicting. It’s a mind blowing amount of batteries and Tesla board member, Steve Jurvetson told me they’re planning to build more Gigafactories around the world, once this one is operational. As well as being Net Zero, they’re going to be creating a lot of employment, so there will be a lot of communities wanting them in their back yard too.
Fergus Nicholl: They’ll be lining up in different countries…
***
Note: We didn’t have time to discuss the competition that Tesla will face in the battery storage space. There are already major players like Samsung, LG Chem and Mitsubishi working on energy storage solutions and a slice of what Deutsche Bank estimates is a $4.5Bn market. The question is, will Tesla’s strong brand and reputation for quality emulate what Apple achieved in the cellphone market, and leapfrog over the existing competition? In his usual hyperbolic (Steve Jobs) fashion, Elon Musk said last night that “existing battery solutions suck.” But the success of his high risk venture in the energy storage market will depend on swift execution and competitive pricing that makes the Tesla Powerwall a viable solution for a wide spectrum of potential buyers, from wealthy consumers and businesses in California to rural communities in India, Africa and beyond.
Why are robots getting close and personal? Here’s my BBC World Business Report about The Brave New World of autonomous cars and social robots. It aired on BBC World Service Monday April 13, 2015.
Two pioneers, Elon Musk of Tesla Motors and Cynthia Breazeal of Jibo Robot, explain why autonomous cars and robots are poised to invade your home and (potentially) make your life easier and safer.
Here’s the program. Listen at 12:16 on the podcast.
WBR Host, Susannah Streeter: The era of robots is getting personal. They’re slowly moving into our homes and our garages. What’s the business case for robot cars that can chauffeur you autonomously and desktop robots that can be your personal assistant? Will they be job killers or job creators? Alison van Diggelen reports from Silicon Valley, California where two pioneers recently described a brave new world full of robots.
Jen-Hsun Huang (Nvidia CEO): Ladies and Gentlemen, Please welcome Tesla CEO, cofounder, Elon Musk [applause]
Elon Musk: In the distant future, people may outlaw driving cars. It’s too dangerous. You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine. [laughter]
That’s Elon Musk, the CEO of electric vehicle maker, Tesla Motors speaking at a recent Silicon Valley tech conference. He helped revolutionize the world of electric vehicles by creating a sexy, high performance car that left the “golf cart” era in the dust. Now he’s joined the charge in autonomous driving, led by Google, and claims that taking a self driving car will soon be as everyday as using an elevator. But are you ready to step into a robot car?
Elon Musk: You’ll be able to tell your car: Take me home, go here, go there, anything…in an order of magnitude safer than a person. It’s going to be the default thing and could save a lot of lives.
Although you might grimace at the thought of relinquishing control, for Musk, Google and several major car manufacturers, the business case for autonomous cars is a no brainer – they say it could save $400 Billion a year in accident related expenses. Researchers at Columbia University found that a shared driverless fleet of cars could reduce personal travel costs by 80%.
But will robotic cars and other types of robots kill jobs?
Cynthia Breazeal argues they won’t. She’s a pioneer in social robots – ones that focus on human-robot interactions. She invented Jibo, a singing, dancing tabletop robot that looks like a cross between the Pixar lamp and an iPad.
Jibo Announcer: Introducing Jibo, the world’s first family robot. Say hi Jibo…
Jibo: Hi Jibo! [laughter]
Jibo Announcer: Jibo helps everyone out throughout their day [music]
Jibo is a personal assistant robot that can photograph, video, entertain and educate you and your family. It can remind you to call your mum on her birthday and even read your children bedtime stories.
Jibo: Let me in or else I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house in!!
Girl: [Giggling]
Jibo announcer: He’s not just a connected device, he’s one of the family.
Girl: Shhhhh. Good night Jibo! [Computer sounds]
.
Although some people might find Jibo a bit creepy, the company’s crowd funding campaign showed its strong consumer appeal. Last year, it raised over $2M from Indiegogo in just 8 weeks. This year, it secured $25M in venture capital. Jibo goes on sale next year.
Breazeal acknowledges that robots were viewed as job killers, historically.
Breazeal: When robotics first came onto the market, it was a lot about replacing human labor. (So that’s been the assumption) Social robotics as a whole research discipline has been about a very different paradigm. So Jibo is not being designed to replace anyone or anything. (Sometimes people talk about, ‘it’s going to replace my dog…’ it’s not about that.) Jibo creates a different kind of relationship…like with your doctor, your dog for example. It’s about supporting the family, those who help care for the family, doctors and nurses…This high touch high tech technology is much better able to address those in need.
Her robot might one day be a job killer for healthcare workers and personal assistants. But for now, Breazeal is on a hiring spree, looking for engineers and she has MILLIONS to spend.
Ultimately, the brave new world of robots envisioned by these pioneers is as inevitable as the relentless advance of tech innovation.
Musk is only half joking when he says this:
Musk: I just hope there’s something left for us humans to do…
***
The report was recorded at the Nvidia Conference, Silicon Valley on March 16, 2015.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is so bullish about self driving cars and the promise of artificial intelligence, that he wonders if one day, there will be “something left for us humans to do.” Today he joined Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang onstage at the company’s annual developers conference in Silicon Valley and used the opportunity to recruit for Tesla’s autonomous driving team.
“Tesla is the leader in electric cars, and we’ll also be the leader in autonomous cars…at least autonomous cars that people can buy. If anybody is interested in working on autonomous cars, we’d love to have you work at Tesla. We’re going to put a lot of effort into autonomous driving…it’s going to be the default thing…it will be extremely transformative,” Elon Musk.
Musk, who Huang describes as an engineer’s engineer, views autonomous driving as “a solved problem” and expects that once its life-saving potential is proven, we’ll all take autonomous cars for granted.
“We know exactly what to do and we’ll be there in a few years,” Musk says. Yet he acknowledges that although freeway driving and driving under 10 mph are (relatively) easy problems to solve, “in between is hard,” especially in suburban areas where there are children playing, roadworks and other unexpected obstacles.
Huang was keen to explore what Tesla’s big announcement will be on Thursday, something Musk has described as providing “an end to range anxiety.”
But Musk was tight lipped, though he did explain how Tesla’s software system is like the human brain in only using a small part of its capacity. The company’s ability to offer regular software updates allows the Model S performance to continually improve over time.
“The first thing we want to do is establish the hardware platform, make sure we have the sensors and computing power, even though the software is only taking advantage of a small percentage of the sensors’ compute power and we do continuous updates to make the car more and more capable. We’re going to see a lot of that happen later this year. If I didn’t have an announcement Thursday, I’d be saying a lot more,” Elon Musk
Road Blocks
Is Musk concerned about big government thwarting big advances in autonomous vehicles?
Not in the least. He appreciates that where public safety is concerned, a cautious approach is necessary and he anticipates that a green light will come from regulatory authorities approximately two years after autonomous driving teams prove their vehicles are safer than humans.
“Regulators will want to see a large amount of statistical proof…but the evidence will be overwhelming,” says Musk. He even anticipates that one day (in the far future), humans driving cars may be illegal because, after all, “You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine.”
Although Tesla began groundwork on a factory site in Reno, Nevada, progress has now halted. Last week, Nevada Senator, Harry Reid said, “I’m not sure they aren’t playing us.”
Meantime, California Governor, Jerry Brown is enthusiastically enticing the electric carmaker with offers of generous tax credits, employee training and fast track approvals.
Although some commentators say that the Golden State is too green to land the Tesla Factory, that hasn’t stopped State Senator Ted Gaines from remaining bullish. “I am very confident…innovators come to California because it’s unique,” Gaines said during a recent CNBC interview. “We want to fight for 6500 jobs and a $5 Billion investment.”
Mark Whitaker: My guests on Business Matters today are Song Seng Wun from CIMB Research in Singapore, and San Francisco’s Alison van Diggelen. Alison presents a program called Fresh Dialogues which is all about high tech… and all about green. Alison, we’re always keen to hear about what’s happening in Silicon Valley. What’s the latest?
van Diggelen: The thing I’m excited about today is the fight over the Tesla gigafactory. Tesla is the maker of an all-electric vehicle, an electric car called a Model S; and the CEO Elon Musk is wanting to build what he’s calling a Gigafactory, which is a giant factory to make billions of lithium-ion batteries. Five states in the United States (California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas) are fighting over the privilege of having this factory in their state. It’s going to produce over 6000 jobs and obviously be a huge boost for the local economy. So it’s quite interesting to see the fierce competition over this whole green expansion here.
Whitaker: So it’s pretty high stakes. Does that give an indication that green industry has really taken off in the United States?
van Diggelen: Well Elon Musk and his team have certainly found a good formula. They’ve produced a car that has had all the top ratings in all the consumer reports. His premise is: he’s not just doing it because he thinks electric vehicles are cool. He really has the big picture in mind: he’s focused on climate change and focused on reducing our carbon footprint.
He’s watching the ice melt in the polar caps and is concerned. So he’s really putting his money where his mouth is and saying: what can we do in the transport industry to make vehicles more electric and less carbon polluting?
Whitaker: Song Seng Wun in Singapore, are you convinced that electric cars are just round the corner?
Song Seng Wun: Here in Singapore there is certainly plenty push as far as government is concerned to ensure transportation is as green as possible and obviously, if we are able to get more cheaper, affordable cars…Singapore is probably the world’s most expensive, even for electric cars…it will be welcome here.
It’s about whether the technology involved in greening transportation can be expanded for use in other cars in manufacturing, in businesses as well, which, I suppose is what Singapore is all about: how to use existing technology for better use elsewhere to increase productivity? (Productivity) is the catchword of the day, of the year, perhaps decade, here in Singapore.
Whitaker: Alison, from what Song Seng is saying…That’s quite heartening from your point of view?
van Diggelen: Yes, it’s great to hear there is that focus on efficiency and sustainability…The Model S is between $70,000 and $100,000 here which obviously is a bit of a stretch for most of us, but what they plan is to have a third generation mass market car and this is where the Gigafactory is a key part of that. They’re planning to produce 500,000 of these all electric cars by 2020, so this is the grand strategy of making transport more electric and more energy efficient.
Listen to more of our BBC Business Matters discussion:
On the economics of Scottish independence: @26:00
On how to bring out the best in Parisian waiters @46:29
Check out other BBC Conversations on Fresh Dialogues:
Steve Jurvetson: (If you look far enough in the future) All vehicles will be electric. We’ll have a Mars colony. We will have to grow more food than since the beginning of agriculture. That will be largely driven by GMOs and a variety of roboticized forms of farming…and moving off meat production in the way we think of it: killing animals. We will “grow” meat in different ways within 50 years and that will have pretty profound effects on Greenhouse Gases to… everything. Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, are changing the world. In that 50 year horizon, the world’s going to look markedly different than today. Future shock is a perpetually occurring phenomenon.
Alison van Diggelen: The main idea is, if you’ve got solar panels on your roof, or windpower, your house can become a power station with the addition of these batteries. No matter what natural disaster, earthquake etc. is happening, you will have a reliable source of power. You won’t need the utility anymore. You can just disconnect from the grid, go “off-grid.” So that’s the huge potential and that’s why people are really excited about tonight’s announcement.
Elon Musk: In the distant future, people may outlaw driving cars. It’s too dangerous. You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine. [laughter]
By 
Mark Whitaker: My guests on Business Matters today are Song Seng Wun from CIMB Research in Singapore, and San Francisco’s Alison van Diggelen. Alison presents a program called 
van Diggelen: Yes, it’s great to hear there is that focus on efficiency and sustainability…The Model S is between $70,000 and $100,000 here which obviously is a bit of a stretch for most of us, but what they plan is to have a 
