Secrets of Venture Capital: An Insider’s View of Bias, Ethics, Rule Breaking

Secrets of Venture Capital: An Insider’s View of Bias, Ethics, Rule Breaking

Have you ever wondered how venture capitalists in Silicon Valley decide what startups to fund and what ones to skip? I had the opportunity to sit down with one of these “masters of the universe” and explore the secrets of venture capital. Scott Kupor is managing partner at Andreessen Horowitz (AH) – one of the most successful VC firms in the world – and we had a candid and lively discussion about the do’s and don’ts of pitching; lessons from Elon Musk’s entrepreneurial journey; diversity, bias and ethics; future trends; and when it’s OK to move fast and break things.  Scott teaches at Stanford and Berkeley and has a new book out – Secrets of Sand Hill Road – that aims to demystify the VC mindset. The conversation took place in front of a live audience at the Commonwealth Club in Silicon Valley on June 10, 2019.

Listen to the Fresh Dialogues podcast:

Here are some highlights of our conversation (edited for length and clarity):

Re. Women in business, diversity and bias

Alison van Diggelen: Let’s talk about diversity: Julian Guthrie’s new book is just out – called Alpha Girls – it’s about four women who took on the Venture Capital “bad boys” and succeeded, despite the odds. There are some good lessons in there. It’s a very tough place to thrive as a woman. Less than 10% of decision makers in the venture capital world are women.

Scott KuporThe number is about 10 or 12 %, depending how you cut the numbers, and about 2% of the funding going to female founders. It’s a real problem.

There are two types of bias: explicit bias, which clearly the #MeToo Movement exposed in a very horrible way. We have to root that stuff out. We need to shine the light on what was underground for many years. The more challenging problem is implicit bias…Whether I like it or not, I’m implicitly biased by the networks I came from. When I want to hire for a job, it’s more likely I go to people I know from Stanford. What we have to do is reach out to (other) networks. So we proactively send out job recs to MLT a group that works with African Americans who’re trying to get into business and financials; and we also have a Cultural Leadership Fund (at AH). 

It’s a network connectivity problem. It’s going to take time, it’s a deep rooted problem. 

Alison van Diggelen: How many general partners at Andreessen Horowitz are women?

Scott Kupor: 20%. Three out of fifteen are women. That’s only  in the last two years. For the first eight years we did not have any female partners…We changed our criteria and opened up the funnel to have a more diverse talent pool.

Re: Ethics and moving fast and breaking things

Alison van Diggelen: Let’s talk about ethics: lessons learned from Theranos (the blood testing company that imploded). And Facebook: they used to have a mantra: Move fast and break things. They have been cavalier about sharing our personal data. How do you train your entrepreneurs to have ethics front and center?

Scott Kupor: I think there’s a difference between outright fraud – we can’t have behavior like that in this industry – and there is this idea that sometimes you have to push faster than sometimes is comfortable and you do break things sometimes and ask for forgiveness second. I think there are elements of that that are fine in this business. There’s a difference between committing crimes and defrauding people and are you just trying to move the ball quickly? You recognize there’s going to be iteration of products and sometimes you’re going to put stuff out that may not be perfect.

The big difference is: as companies mature it’s a bit of the Elon Musk question (we talked about earlier) – I think different standards of behavior are appropriate depending upon the size and maturity of these companies. Running fast and breaking things – and putting out half baked products – is not as unacceptable in the pure startup world where the scope of the harm potentially is smaller because you’re still dealing with small amounts of customers, but when you get to the scale of a Facebook, you have a different responsibility. Our best bet on our companies is to use our persuasive techniques to make them value these things.  Over time,  your level of responsibility changes, based upon your success. At some point in time you have to act like the navy – not a pirate – once you conquer the ship.

Alison van Diggelen: Are you saying it’s OK to be a pirate in the early stages of a startup?

CWCluScott Kupor w Alison van DiggelenScott Kupor: It depends on what pirate means (audience laughter).

Fraud and misleading people is clearly not right. But the idea that you might enter into a market where you’re not exactly sure what the product should look like, you might have a theory on what your regulatory structure is, but you’re not 100% sure.

I’ll give you a great example: we’re investors in Airbnb and Lyft. These companies probably couldn’t have been successful if they’d asked for permission every time they went into a new market. You could argue that was unethical: They should’ve got permission first. The reality is, they said: we’re going to go into a new market, we believe we have a defensible theory that why what we’re doing is appropriate from a regulatory perspective, but we also know we’re likely to get challenged on that. But over time, if a consumer utility is big enough, there is a way to deal with these issues. So that’s my definition of a pirate: I think that’s reasonable acceptable behavior. Fraud and misleading people is not acceptable behavior.

We also discuss:

The do’s and don’ts of pitching Venture Capitalists @29:00 in the Commonwealth Club podcast

Lessons from Elon Musk’s entrepreneurship @20:00

Chinese investments, IP theft @40:00

Future trends in the economy; crowdfunding, competition in venture capital @58:00

Women in business, diversity and bias @48:00

Ethics, Theranos @54:00

Find out:

More about the VC Mindset from my interviews with Steve Jurvetson

More insights on Entrepreneurship at Fresh Dialogues

 

What’s Richard Branson’s Vision for Virgin Galactic, Hyperloop One? BBC Report

What’s Richard Branson’s Vision for Virgin Galactic, Hyperloop One? BBC Report

Why did Virgin’s Richard Branson decide to invest in Hyperloop One, the futuristic transport system that seeks to shrink journey times (like LA to San Francisco, London to Glasgow) to less than one hour? On assignment for the BBC World Service, Alison van Diggelen sat down with Branson in San Francisco to explore his vision for the Hyperloop, as well as Virgin Galactic, One Web and supersonic travel around the world.

Branson is still reeling from the deadly hurricanes that destroyed his island paradise, and he’s calling for a Marshall Plan to aid sustainable recovery in the Caribbean region. He told me he’s energized by the “climate skeptic in the White House.”

“When you’ve got 99% of scientists saying the world is heating up, the world is heating up. Yes, you’ve got a climate skeptic in the White House but most sane people – most rational people – know that we have a problem. It’s sad to have someone like that in such a position of power and therefore all of us have just to work that much harder to rectify any damage that he does.” Richard Branson, Founder of Virgin Group

Photo: Richard Branson in conversation with Alison van Diggelen for the BBC World Service. San Francisco, October, 2017. Credit: Lewis van Diggelen

My report aired on the BBC World Service’s tech program, Click. You can listen to the BBC podcast here (Branson segment starts at 0:35)

Or listen to the Branson segment below:

 

Here’s a transcript of the segment (plus some bonus material), edited for length and clarity:

The BBC’s Gareth Mitchell: First, a futuristic plan to transport us in supersonic tube trains. This is a concept called the Hyperloop and now one of the world’s richest people is investing in it. Virgin Group founder, Richard Branson has just done a deal with one of the companies developing the technology, Hyperloop One. Alison van Diggelen, our reporter in Silicon Valley has been speaking to Richard Branson. The conversation begins with Branson’s other great interest: space. Not just Virgin Galactic, but plans to improve connectivity for citizens back here on earth.

Alison van Diggelen: What makes Virgin Galactic distinct from what Jeff Bezos is doing with Blue Origin and Elon Musk with SpaceX?

Richard Branson: With Virgin Galactic our principal reason for being is to help this beautiful earth that we live on. Space can help people back here on earth…One of the things we’re going to be doing through a company we’re involved in called One Web is put an array of 2,000 satellites around the earth. That’ll be the biggest array of satellites in space and they can help connect the 4 Billion people who’re not connected today. If you’re not connected, and you can’t get Internet or wifi; it’s difficult for you to start businesses and help your children get educated in remote places….

Alison van Diggelen: What’s the timeline on that?

Richard Branson: One Web should be up and running in about 2 ½ years time (first launches are due to start in 2-3 months). Virgin Galactic’s mission is taking people into space, making them astronauts, and giving them an incredible experience and a chance to look back on this beautiful earth. Next year (2018) should be the year for Virgin Galactic, the year that VSS Unity goes into space, the year I go into space and we start taking people into space. Because Virgin Galactic – unlike what Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk’s are doing – is shaped like an airplane, like a spaceship (they’ve gone for big rockets) – it can go into space, it can come back, it can land again and we can grow it. So one day we can do point to point travel…

Richard Branson in front of VSS Unity, Photo credit: Jack Brockway

Photo: Richard Branson shows off Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity. Credit: Jack Brockway

Alison van Diggelen: What does that mean? Rocket speeds around earth?

Richard Branson: We could potentially (laughter) send people into orbit at 18,500 mph which would mean you could go anywhere on earth in 45 minutes. Realistically, our bodies won’t cope with that so we most likely would send people into sub-orbital flight, traveling at more like 4,000 mph which would mean London to Australia in 3-4 hours, instead of 18 hours currently, so still a big step forward: much faster than Concorde was and still tremendously exciting.

Alison van Diggelen: What are the tech challenges to making that happen?

Richard Branson: The advantage we have today is something called carbon fiber and that is an awful lot lighter than metal – which is what Concorde was built with. That can also be used in the building of engines. A plane can be an awful lot lighter. The technology on supersonic engine power has moved ahead dramatically since Concorde. Unlike Concorde, which was built by British and French governments, and really never made any money, we think we can actually build planes to go supersonically that would be economically viable as well. Of course, as a private company they have to be economically viable…

Alison van Diggelen: Is that a Virgin Galactic project or the Boom supersonic jet project?

Richard Branson: We’re helping “Boom” but we’ve also got our own Virgin Galactic project.

Alison van Diggelen:  Your latest big project is Virgin Hyperloop One. Tell me about that and your vision for that? You know (Hyperloop One board member) Shervin Pishevar, but what was it about the project that you thought: this is one for Virgin?

Richard Branson: 20 years ago, BR existed in Britain and it was pretty dire to say the least…most government run companies are not great, so we said to the government we’d be willing to take over the West coast main line and we also promised we’d transform it. There were 8.5 million ppl using it then. We brought in the Pendolino train and this year we’ll have approx. 40 m people using it, but we’re restricted to ~130 mph – whereas our trains could be going 160 mph – because the track isn’t good enough. So we’ve been looking for technology that will transport people at much greater speeds. The exciting thing about Hyperloop is that if we could get a straight line between London and Edinburgh or London and Glasgow, we could transport people in about 45 minutes. That would open up the cities more than anything and the idea of being able to get into a pod…the pod could literally come to your office or your home, pick you up, go down a tunnel…the pod will connect to our system and then it takes off and 45 minutes later, a grandmother in Glasgow could find herself in London, the pod carrying on and taking her to see her grandchildren somewhere in London: A lot easier than the 4.5 hours it takes currently on trains. 

Virgin Hyperloop One team: Branson, Pishevar, Giegel

Photo: Virgin Hyperloop One team: Giegel, Branson, Pishevar. Credit: Virgin.com

Alison van Diggelen:  What’s your timeline on that? My mother is 85 and she has grandchildren in London…

Richard Branson: I’m a little younger than her and am determined that it will happen in my lifetime. I will try to make sure it happens in her lifetime. Obviously we have got to have discussions with the government, they are building a high speed line but I think this could be compatible with that – and could be separate from that: Great Britain needs a lot more capacity. Obviously it’s not just for Great Britain…We are talking to countries all over the world…

Gareth Mitchell: That’s Richard Branson, talking to countries all over the world, and also to Alison van Diggelen. Let’s talk to Bill Thompson.

Bill Thompson: I really wish I could believe the Hyperloop is something I’ll see in my lifetime. The idea is a very interesting one: vacuum tube, high acceleration, low friction. There are enormous engineering challenges. I do think that talking it up as if it’s just around the corner is too much of a distraction from solving the real problems of urban transportation. Getting permissions…sorting out the safety problems will take a lot more work. What happens if the power goes down when you’re traveling at several hundred kilometers per hour in a steel tube? I’m pleased to see it being talked about but I’m certainly not holding my breath.

Continue listening to the BBC World Service Click podcast

Note: Virgin Hyperloop One was previously known as Hyperloop One and before that: Hyperloop Technologies. It’s distinct from rival: Hyperloop Transportation Technologies or HTT.  Confused? Don’t be! Find out more here. 

The new partnership was announced October 12 2017, and aims to offer passenger and cargo deliveries. Today it announced more strategic expansions to its team.

Many thanks to the Commonwealth Club of Silicon Valley for providing access to its Evening with Richard Branson on October 14th.

Wonder Women of Silicon Valley: Megan Smith, Ann Winblad, Neri Oxman & Linda Rottenberg

Wonder Women of Silicon Valley: Megan Smith, Ann Winblad, Neri Oxman & Linda Rottenberg

Some call it “The Oscars of Silicon Valley.” This year, the glitzy, red carpet affair celebrated four Wonder Women: Megan Smith, Ann Winblad, Neri Oxman and Linda Rottenberg. Alison van Diggelen reports on SVForum’s Visionary Awards for the BBC World Service. What are the secrets of these Wonder Womens’ success, and what do they think needs done to bring more women into the tech field?

Listen to the report and lively discussion with the BBC’s Fergus Nicoll. Our discussion starts at 26:00 in the podcast.

Here’s a transcript of our dialogue (edited for length and clarity):

Fergus Nicoll: Investigations reveal that women occupy only about 11% of Silicon Valley executive positions…and a tiny percentage of startups are owned by women. Are things going to change? Alison, you’ve been to an event to recognize talent in the sector…

Alison van Diggelen: Last week I attended Silicon Valley Forum’s Visionary Awards. SVForum is celebrating its 20th anniversary and unlike its usual male-dominated roster of honorees (Bill Gates, Vint Cerf, Elon Musk etc.), this year: three of its five honorees were female. I was curious to learn the secrets of their success, and what they think needs to be done to bring more women into the tech field. This is all in the context of Uber’s chief stepping down from the company this week – at least temporarily – and the company tacitly acknowledging that it needs to change what some are calling its toxic corporate culture for women. I was curious to learn the secrets of these Wonder Womens’ success, and what do they think needs to be done to bring more women into the tech field?

[Atmos: Crowd, music, welcome]

SVForum CEO, Denyse Cardozo: Good evening and welcome to the 20th anniversary Visionary Awards….

Alison van Diggelen: Just before she went onstage, I found tech pioneer Megan Smith surrounded by a group of adoring fans. She was President Obama’s Chief Technology Officer and now she’s back from DC her rockstar status is soaring among the technorati. You might even call her Silicon Valley’s Wonder Woman. Tall and forceful, she oozes enthusiasm and credits the valley’s unique ecosystem for her success.

Megan Smith with Alison van Diggelen Visionaries 2017Megan Smith: One of the things I’m going to talk about tonight is this “apprentice- journeyman-master” and Silicon Valley is so good at that. We learn from those who have gone before. I was mentored here in this community by extraordinary people

Alison van Diggelen: Notably, her list is all men. Women make up less than 15% of most tech companies’ technical teams. Why so few?

Megan Smith: We have this strange idea that there’s technical people and non-technical people and it’s a very un-useful cultural problem: stereotyping…The truth is women and men, people of color from every corner of the earth have been doing extraordinary, heroic and technical things and sometimes the stories get lost…

Alison van Diggelen: Smith blames story tellers for ignoring the significant contributions of women at Bletchley Park, at Apple and at NASA. Although she praises the recent “Hidden Figures” movie for finally highlighting the female heroes at NASA during the space race. Ann Winblad echoes the need to raise the profile of role models. She’s an influential venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and received her visionary award back in ‘99, alongside Bill Gates.

Ann Winblad: Women are not hidden figures in this industry. We’re honoring three really strong women tonight…….The more that we do things like these events where we show there are as many strong women to honor as strong men, it will enlighten women that there is a real opportunity.

Alison van Diggelen: Winblad reframes it in FOMO terms…Fear of missing out:

Ann Winblad:  Six of the top ten highest valued companies in the world are tech companies…. We all know their names. For women they’re missing a huge opportunity if they don’t join the fastest growing, most exciting industry in the world.

Linda Rottenberg with Alison van Diggelen Visionaries 2017

Alison van Diggelen: Linda Rottenberg knows about huge opportunities. Her visionary award is for pioneering Silicon Valley’s high-impact entrepreneurship model around the world. She challenges women to be braver and bolder; and to break stereotypes:

Linda Rottenberg: Not all innovators are boys in hoodies in their 20s: People are going to be over 50, people are going to be women…Sometimes our view of entrepreneurship gets so narrow cast that we dismiss the talent and creativity right in our midst. The biggest risk is taking none at all….

Neri Oxman with Alison van Diggelen Visionaries 2017

Alison van Diggelen: Fellow visionary, Neri Oxman believes in risk-taking and passion. She’s an inventor and designer at MIT’s Media Lab, famed for her “material ecology” innovations.

Neri Oxman: It’s not easy to define a new field and to generate new technologies for the kinds of project that we are creating, so it requires a suspense of disbelief; and a willingness to fail…

Alison van Diggelen: For her part, Megan Smith is passionate to launch a new tech startup soon to continue her White House mission. She believes that her computer science initiative will help empower many school kids. Here’s President Obama promoting the program back in January 2016…

President Obama: I’ve got a plan to help make sure all our kids get an opportunity to learn computer science, especially girls and minorities.  It’s called Computer Science For All.  And it means just what it says – giving every student in America an early start at learning the skills they’ll need to get ahead in the new economy…to make sure all our young people can compete in a high-tech, global economy.  

Alison van Diggelen: Smith challenges tech leaders for not doing enough to make diversity a top priority:

Megan Smith: It’s really outrageous and irresponsible for the leadership in tech…and it’s also bad for the bottom line. Research shows the more diverse the team, the better financial performance…We’ve got to field the whole human teamit’s especially urgent right now with the beginnings of Artificial Intelligence and data science.

Alison van Diggelen: Celebrating these strong role models – these Wonder Women in Silicon Valley – is one thing, but boosting the pipeline of candidates is vital. Across the US, only 18% of computer science and engineering students are women. As the evening winds down and Silicon Valley’s glitterati disperse into the balmy San Jose evening, Ann Winblad throws down the gauntlet to the next generation:

Ann Winblad: I encourage young women to get excited about science and to make those computer science classes, those engineering classes at least 50% women. If it got higher than 50%, women would OWN the tech industry.

[Crowd, music…fade out] Report ends.

Continue listening to the discussion on BBC’s Business Matters podcast to hear our discussion and my BBC colleague Dave Lee’s report on Nintendo’s comeback.

This report also aired several times on the BBC’s World Business Report

The other visionary awards were presented to pioneering venture capitalist, Steve Jurvetson and Don Eigler, an award-winning nanoscientist.

See more photos of the Visionary Awards and watch video here.

 

Visionary Awards 2017 Kevin Surace Vint Cerf Ann Winblad Ray Kurzweil

Google’s Dave Burke: Fresh Dialogues Uncut

Google’s Dave Burke: Fresh Dialogues Uncut

Deep learning; geek nostalgia; Google’s Pixel phone; and why seeking ‘uncomfortably exciting’ opportunities can bring success.

Alison van Diggelen, host of Fresh Dialogues sat down with Google’s Dave Burke, an Irishman, who has risen quickly through the ranks. He leads the Android team, with responsibility for the device and developer ecosystem; and Google’s Pixel phone. How did he succeed so fast, and what qualities does he seek when hiring for his growing team?

I interviewed Burke this month for a BBC World Service report exploring Irish identity and success in Silicon Valley.  We had a lively and wide ranging conversation full of insights for tech geeks and entrepreneurs alike, so I’m posting the uncut interview for your listening pleasure.

Listen to the uncut interview:
Off mic, I asked Burke why Elon Musk has inspired him.
“It’s his ability to intuit a bold vision for the future, and then be comfortable in the abstract and yet push tenaciously forward over multiple years. Successful mathematicians need a similar personality – they have an intuition that a solution exists but initially have no concrete certainty on how to prove it and have to persist, sometimes over decades. Einstein’s story of deriving his theory of general relativity is a good example. This personality trait attracts other smart people… For Elon, the ‘contagious confidence’ extends out to his customers, i.e. many are willing to pay a high premium for a Tesla car and don’t seem to worry about the future viability of this fledgling startup, simply because have confidence in the founder.” Dave Burke, Google

Here’s are some highlights  of our conversation:

On the secrets of Burke’s success @00:20

“Seek out challenges that are uncomfortably exciting…there’s always a risk of failure, but if you succeed, you could make a huge impact.”

Why he’s so excited about deep learning @19:23

“The big hot area is deep learning, using neural networks….applying lots of data. You can make machines do incredible things…The potential for deep learning and for AI to make our lives easier is very exciting.”

On Google’s Pixel phone @27:15

“Software pushes the hardware and hardware pushes the software. To advance the operating system, you need to have them working really closely together.  It allows Google to have its own product. If you’re a Google user, this is the ideal phone for you.”

On rumors of a new Pixel phone this year @27:54

“I can neither confirm nor deny rumors. Technology moves very fast, the cadence…Typically every year, you try to do something new and exciting…we are very busy, working on a lot of stuff… The reviews have been great…but I see the potential for so much more, in terms of innovation, product quality.”

We also discussed Burke’s “geek nostalgia” for the BBC Micro computer by Acorn (the precursor to ARM); the gravitational pull of Silicon Valley; the three questions you need to ask to discover if someone is “really Irish”; and flying robotic lemonade stands!

Look out for more “Fresh Dialogues Uncut” featuring  Elon Musk, Arianna Huffington, Charlie Rose and Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard.

Check out dozens more Fresh Dialogues podcasts on iTunes.

BBC Report: How to Make a Spaceship, the XPrize Way

BBC Report: How to Make a Spaceship, the XPrize Way

By Alison van Diggelen, host of Fresh Dialogues

In 1996, space enthusiast, Peter Diamandis announced the $10 Million XPrize for the first private spaceship to fly 100 kilometers into space. The only problem was: he didn’t have $10 Million, not even close! Nevertheless, his audacious challenge inspired dozens of teams all over the world to compete and he did eventually find a sponsor…and a winning team. The dramatic story that helped jumpstart the private space race is told in Julian Guthrie’s new book “How to Make a Spaceship” which comes out on September 20th. The book has a foreword by Virgin’s Richard Branson and afterword by superstar scientist, Stephen Hawking.

I interviewed Julian and Peter at the Singularity University Summit and they shared their unique insights into the band of renegades who finally succeeded in winning the XPrize. Peter talked about how he was inspired by Charles Lindbergh’s historic transatlantic flight to win a $25,000 prize. Today, this original XPrize has spawned many others. Over $80 Million in XPrizes continue to drive tech innovation in energy, education, medicine and space exploration.

“This incentive challenge really touched a nerve globally and brought out this entrepreneurial spirit internationally. You had people taking big risks and sacrificing a huge amount…They were fueled by their own passions and obsessions, and dismissed their own fears and naysayers. There’s a lot of bravery in what was done.” Author Julian Guthrie 

Last week, the BBC’s Tech Tent aired my interview with Peter. Listen to the podcast excerpt:


.

Julian Guthrie interviewed by Alison van Diggelen for BBC Tech Tent Aug 2016

Backstage with Julian Guthrie, author of “How to Make a Spaceship”

Here’s a transcript of the introduction and report:

BBC’s Rory Cellan-Jones: It’s 20 years since a space-obsessed entrepreneur called Peter Diamandis launched a $10M to stimulate private space flight. The XPrize spurred dozens of teams around the world to compete for the money and the glory and today the private space industry is one of the most exciting – and risky – sectors of tech innovation. This whole story is told in “How to Make a Spaceship” published later this month.

We asked the Silicon Valley journalist, Alison van Diggelen, to interview Peter Diamandis. He told her why he’s glad Virgin’s Richard Branson turned him down as a sponsor for the first XPrize.

Peter Diamandis: I pitched Richard (Branson) twice. I thought he was the perfect person to do this…The fact that he didn’t fund it and make it the Virgin XPrize, which could’ve been a cool name, led him to the point that when the $10M Ansari XPrize was ultimately won, Richard came in and bought the rights to the winning technology to create Virgin Galactic. So instead of spending $10 million on the prize purse, he spent quarter of a billion dollars developing Virgin Galactic….which I was very happy about.

Alison van Diggelen: Let’s talk about the Cambridge physicist, Stephen Hawking.  He wrote (in) the afterword for your book: “The human race has no future if it doesn’t go to space.” Can you explain what he meant by that?

Peter Diamandis interviewed by Alison van Diggelen for BBC Tech Tent Sept 2016Peter Diamandis: I had a chance to meet Prof Hawking through the XPrize. We’re actually working right now on an ALS XPrize…. When I met him back in 2007 I invited him to fly on a zero G flight. It was amazing to give the world’s expert on gravity the experience of zero gravity…He was asked why he was doing something kind of risky…for someone in a wheelchair…that frail, it could be dangerous.

He said:

“I want to promote space travel… If the human race doesn’t go into space, we don’t have a future.”           Stephen Hawking

His concerns are the existential threats of nuclear war, killer virus, asteroid impact…I’m an optimistic guy. I think we have a bigger future if we go into space. The concept that Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Larry Page, Stephen Hawking, myself…that we talk about is the notion that: It’s time to make the earth a multi-planetary species…that we can back-up the biosphere. We have the ability to take all the knowledge, all of the genomes on this planet…and to take all the eggs out of one basket…

Alison van Diggelen: And talk about the technology. Some are saying: OK the private sector has entered the space race but we’re not any further forward than when man landed on the moon with NASA (Apollo missions). Talk about how the technology has changed with the private sector on a much more limited budget and a faster timetable.

Peter Diamandis: It’s astounding how fast the technology has changed. It’s night and day. It doesn’t come out of the large industrial military complex, which is risk averse,   it comes out of an entrepreneurial mindset that’s willing to do something completely different. I give credit to Elon Musk and a team at SpaceX. They’ve pulled off the impossible. They’ve built the Falcon 9 launch vehicle which has a fully reusable first stage which could drop the cost of launching satellites into space by a factor of 5.

There’s sensors on board, there’s 3D printing engines on the vehicle. You’re mass manufacturing everything in house. You’re using the latest materials, machine learning, and AI protocols for design. You’re able to create a vehicle that was never heretofore possible.

This is for me is the most exciting time ever to be alive.

Bonus Material (these make the final cut)

Alison van Diggelen: Instead of thinking out of the box, you’re saying you should “think in a small box.” Explain that rationale.

Peter Diamandis: In Julian Guthrie’s book “How to make a spaceship” I demonstrate this. I said: This competition is over on Dec 31 2004. It’s not any spaceship to any altitude. It’s 3 people to 100km. You have to land and in two weeks do it again.

When you’re able to constrain the problem that’s when people can innovate. It gives them the ability to throw out all old ways of thinking and really innovate with something new.

Alison van Diggelen: What stimulated all this spaceship innovation?

Julian Guthrie: Innovations came from very unexpected places: entrepreneurs…these scrappy teams. Small teams can do big things and in this case they can make history. They have the ability to fail and then to move forward very quickly, and test new things. You’re not dealing with bureaucratic nightmares. You’re iterating – which is the key to success – that rapid pivoting led to a new iteration of (spaceship) design.

Alison van Diggelen: Steve Bennett (the UK rocket builder) talked about the “American mindset” of dream big. After all your book research, do you believe this mindset is exclusively American?

Julian Guthrie:  What Steve Bennet is doing in the UK and telling kids: think big, follow your dreams, whatever your spaceship is, make it happen, is great! But I think there is a uniquely American quality to rolling up your sleeves…there is an American bootstrap mentality. This is the epicenter of that “ anything is possible ” mentality.

Find out more at Fresh Dialogues

My interview with Elon Musk re SpaceX

“I always thought that we’d make much more progress in space…and it just didn’t happen…it was really disappointing, so I was really quite bothered by it. So when we went to the moon, we were supposed to have a base on the moon, we were supposed to send people to Mars and that stuff just didn’t happen. We went backwards. I thought, well maybe it’s a question of there not being enough intention or ‘will’ to do this. This was a wrong assumption. That’s the reason for the greenhouse idea…if there could be a small philanthropic mission to Mars…a small greenhouse with seeds and dehydrated nutrients, you’d have this great shot of a little greenhouse with little green plants on a red background. I thought that would get people excited…you have to imagine the money shot. I thought this would result in a bigger budget for NASA and then we could resume the journey…” Elon Musk