Why are robots getting close and personal? Here’s my BBC World Business Report about The Brave New World of autonomous cars and social robots. It aired on BBC World Service Monday April 13, 2015.
Two pioneers, Elon Musk of Tesla Motors and Cynthia Breazeal of Jibo Robot, explain why autonomous cars and robots are poised to invade your home and (potentially) make your life easier and safer.
Here’s the program. Listen at 12:16 on the podcast.
WBR Host, Susannah Streeter: The era of robots is getting personal. They’re slowly moving into our homes and our garages. What’s the business case for robot cars that can chauffeur you autonomously and desktop robots that can be your personal assistant? Will they be job killers or job creators? Alison van Diggelen reports from Silicon Valley, California where two pioneers recently described a brave new world full of robots.
Jen-Hsun Huang (Nvidia CEO): Ladies and Gentlemen, Please welcome Tesla CEO, cofounder, Elon Musk [applause]
Elon Musk: In the distant future, people may outlaw driving cars. It’s too dangerous. You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine. [laughter]
That’s Elon Musk, the CEO of electric vehicle maker, Tesla Motors speaking at a recent Silicon Valley tech conference. He helped revolutionize the world of electric vehicles by creating a sexy, high performance car that left the “golf cart” era in the dust. Now he’s joined the charge in autonomous driving, led by Google, and claims that taking a self driving car will soon be as everyday as using an elevator. But are you ready to step into a robot car?
Elon Musk: You’ll be able to tell your car: Take me home, go here, go there, anything…in an order of magnitude safer than a person. It’s going to be the default thing and could save a lot of lives.
Although you might grimace at the thought of relinquishing control, for Musk, Google and several major car manufacturers, the business case for autonomous cars is a no brainer – they say it could save $400 Billion a year in accident related expenses. Researchers at Columbia University found that a shared driverless fleet of cars could reduce personal travel costs by 80%.
But will robotic cars and other types of robots kill jobs?
Cynthia Breazeal argues they won’t. She’s a pioneer in social robots – ones that focus on human-robot interactions. She invented Jibo, a singing, dancing tabletop robot that looks like a cross between the Pixar lamp and an iPad.
Jibo Announcer: Introducing Jibo, the world’s first family robot. Say hi Jibo…
Jibo: Hi Jibo! [laughter]
Jibo Announcer: Jibo helps everyone out throughout their day [music]
Jibo is a personal assistant robot that can photograph, video, entertain and educate you and your family. It can remind you to call your mum on her birthday and even read your children bedtime stories.
Jibo: Let me in or else I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house in!!
Girl: [Giggling]
Jibo announcer: He’s not just a connected device, he’s one of the family.
Girl: Shhhhh. Good night Jibo! [Computer sounds]
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Although some people might find Jibo a bit creepy, the company’s crowd funding campaign showed its strong consumer appeal. Last year, it raised over $2M from Indiegogo in just 8 weeks. This year, it secured $25M in venture capital. Jibo goes on sale next year.
Breazeal acknowledges that robots were viewed as job killers, historically.
Breazeal: When robotics first came onto the market, it was a lot about replacing human labor. (So that’s been the assumption) Social robotics as a whole research discipline has been about a very different paradigm. So Jibo is not being designed to replace anyone or anything. (Sometimes people talk about, ‘it’s going to replace my dog…’ it’s not about that.) Jibo creates a different kind of relationship…like with your doctor, your dog for example. It’s about supporting the family, those who help care for the family, doctors and nurses…This high touch high tech technology is much better able to address those in need.
Her robot might one day be a job killer for healthcare workers and personal assistants. But for now, Breazeal is on a hiring spree, looking for engineers and she has MILLIONS to spend.
Ultimately, the brave new world of robots envisioned by these pioneers is as inevitable as the relentless advance of tech innovation.
Musk is only half joking when he says this:
Musk: I just hope there’s something left for us humans to do…
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The report was recorded at the Nvidia Conference, Silicon Valley on March 16, 2015.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is so bullish about self driving cars and the promise of artificial intelligence, that he wonders if one day, there will be “something left for us humans to do.” Today he joined Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang onstage at the company’s annual developers conference in Silicon Valley and used the opportunity to recruit for Tesla’s autonomous driving team.
“Tesla is the leader in electric cars, and we’ll also be the leader in autonomous cars…at least autonomous cars that people can buy. If anybody is interested in working on autonomous cars, we’d love to have you work at Tesla. We’re going to put a lot of effort into autonomous driving…it’s going to be the default thing…it will be extremely transformative,” Elon Musk.
Musk, who Huang describes as an engineer’s engineer, views autonomous driving as “a solved problem” and expects that once its life-saving potential is proven, we’ll all take autonomous cars for granted.
“We know exactly what to do and we’ll be there in a few years,” Musk says. Yet he acknowledges that although freeway driving and driving under 10 mph are (relatively) easy problems to solve, “in between is hard,” especially in suburban areas where there are children playing, roadworks and other unexpected obstacles.
Huang was keen to explore what Tesla’s big announcement will be on Thursday, something Musk has described as providing “an end to range anxiety.”
But Musk was tight lipped, though he did explain how Tesla’s software system is like the human brain in only using a small part of its capacity. The company’s ability to offer regular software updates allows the Model S performance to continually improve over time.
“The first thing we want to do is establish the hardware platform, make sure we have the sensors and computing power, even though the software is only taking advantage of a small percentage of the sensors’ compute power and we do continuous updates to make the car more and more capable. We’re going to see a lot of that happen later this year. If I didn’t have an announcement Thursday, I’d be saying a lot more,” Elon Musk
Road Blocks
Is Musk concerned about big government thwarting big advances in autonomous vehicles?
Not in the least. He appreciates that where public safety is concerned, a cautious approach is necessary and he anticipates that a green light will come from regulatory authorities approximately two years after autonomous driving teams prove their vehicles are safer than humans.
“Regulators will want to see a large amount of statistical proof…but the evidence will be overwhelming,” says Musk. He even anticipates that one day (in the far future), humans driving cars may be illegal because, after all, “You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine.”
Elon Musk has been hailed as the next Steve Jobs, a serial disruptor and a genius. Others call him just crazy. Yet Musk has defied the naysayers and made remarkable innovations in both electric cars and spaceflight over the last ten years. But just how accurate is the Steve Jobs comparison?
“Most innovation is like a new melody,” writes Ted curator Chris Anderson. “For Jobs and Musk, it’s the whole symphony.”
Anderson’s analogy is right. Neither men do things in small measures. They seek to change the world.
I interviewed Elon Musk last year in one of his most revealing public appearances, and he exposed a complex character that is both deadly serious yet comedic at times; driven yet sensitive; single minded, and yet eclectic in his desire to change the world in multiple ways.
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That sensitivity was apparent several times during our dialogue when his eyes welled up in response to my questions about the future of NASA, Neil Armstrong, and candlelight vigils for the EV1 (@28:35, 1:04:00 & 39:50 in the video). Steve Jobs was also known to weep.
Musk has many traits in common with Jobs and yet in subtle ways their characters are distinct. Elon Musk vs Steve Jobs. The two did meet, but it didn’t go well.
Here are five revealing moments from our conversation that emphasize the common threads between the two businessmen.
1. Ability to Sell Great Ideas
Jobs used his infamous “reality distortion field” to push his teams hard to achieve much more that they thought was possible. His oft-quoted phrase was “insanely great” and his product launches were passionate and brash.
Musk is more pragmatic in his approach, he rarely uses buzzwords*, and although his product launches are often equally dazzling, his delivery is less assured, more halting.
*Granted, he does talk about getting a “money shot” of his greenhouse on Mars idea (@30:00 in the video).
“In the beginning there will be few people who believe in you or in what you’re doing but then over time… the evidence will build and more and more people will believe in what you’re doing. So, I think it’s a good idea when creating a company to … have a demonstration or to be able to sketch something so people can really envision what it’s about. Try to get to that point as soon as possible.” Elon Musk
This Word Art of our 90-minute conversation reveals no catchy buzzwords, though the word THINK stands out prominently.
Stories abound of Steve Jobs’ intense attention to detail. He notoriously spent months agonizing over the internal layout of the Mac computer’s circuit board.
“I want it to be as beautiful as possible, even if it’s inside the box. A great carpenter isn’t going to use lousy wood for the back of a cabinet, even though nobody’s going to see it.” Steve Jobs
When his team failed to deliver on his vision, Jobs often flew into terrible rages. Case in point: the first fanless computer.
By contrast, Musk is known for his attention to detail and being a demanding boss, but he focuses his Vulcan rage at the media over issues like damning test drives, and Tesla car fires; and at foes such as auto dealerships.
His rage also turns inward. For example, when he discovered the wrong type of screw used in the Model S sun visors. He reportedly said, “they felt like daggers in my eyes.”
While doing pre-interviews with Musk’s colleagues, I heard a revealing story about his obsession with the Tesla Model S key fob. A colleague described how he agonized for weeks over the shape, the girth, the weight of the fob till it was just right. Take a peek at the end result and see if you think it was all worth it.
When I visited the Tesla factory (on assignment for KQED), I heard a similar story from the mechanics working on the iconic Model S door handles. Responsive door handles that sit flush with car doors looked like mission impossible, yet Musk and his team eventually prevailed. The result is so highly prized that my tour guide, Gilbert Passin (VP for manufacturing at Tesla) forbade me to take close-up photos of the components, for fear of copycats.
3. Ability to Think Differently Stems from Splendid Isolation
When I asked Musk if he was a lonely kid, he replied:
“I wasn’t all that much of a loner…at least not willingly. I was very very bookish.” Elon Musk
As a kid he was consumed by his own world, reading books like “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” and playing Dungeons and Dragons for hours. Musk found coding a piece of cake and created his own software at the tender age of 12. Thanks to his bookish childhood, his innovative ideas could flourish without being squashed by friends or family.
Similarly, Jobs had an isolated childhood, and was bullied at school. He did no competitive school sports and was obsessed by electronics and gadgets.
4. Deep Thinking
Although Jobs was less techie, more visionary; and Musk is a geeky engineer who prides himself on innovation using scientific first principles, both are deep thinkers.
Elon Musk explained how Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy inspired him while he was looking for the meaning of life as a teenager.
“It highlighted an important point, which is that a lot of times the question is harder than the answer. And if you can properly phrase the question, then the answer is the easy part. To the degree that we can better understand the universe, then we can better know what questions to ask. Then whatever the question is that most approximates: what’s the meaning of life? That’s the question we can ultimately get closer to understanding. And so I thought to the degree that we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness and knowledge, then that would be a good thing.” Elon Musk
Walter Isaacson, the author of Jobs’ biography wrote that Jobs felt throughout his life that he was on a journey — and he often said, ‘The journey was the reward.’ But that journey involved resolving conflicts about his role in this world: why he was here and what it was all about. He had a lifelong interest in Zen Buddhism and they discussed whether or not he believed in an afterlife.
“Sometimes I’m 50-50 on whether there’s a God. It’s the great mystery we never quite know. But I like to believe there’s an afterlife. I like to believe the accumulated wisdom doesn’t just disappear when you die, but somehow it endures.” Steve Jobs
5. Impact
Although Musk isn’t yet the household name that Jobs has become, those who’re familiar with Musk’s work and genius compare him to Leonardo da Vinci and The Atlantic recently described him as one of the most ambitious innovators of this era. And what about Steve Jobs? He was described in the study as “a star of popular culture.”
Ouch!
During our interview, Musk shared the story of his brief encounter with the great Steve Jobs. The two were introduced by Google’s Larry Page at a party and Musk describes Jobs as being “super rude” to him. Nevertheless, this didn’t dent his admiration for the Apple guru. Here’s our dialogue:
Elon Musk: “The guy had a certain magic about him that was really inspiring. I think that’s really great.”
Alison van Diggelen: “Is it that magic that you try to emulate?”
Elon Musk: “No, I think Steve Jobs was way cooler than I am.”
Although Apple fans will agree strongly with that assessment, feedback at YouTube loudly contradicts Musk. Here’s one of the more polite reactions:
“Sounds just like Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla. Except Elon Musk will probably end up being much more memorable than Steve Jobs :P”
As 2014 begins, Musk is still right, Steve Jobs is generally perceived as being “way cooler” than him. But that could change.
What will the history books conclude, in ten or twenty years from now? Steve Jobs certainly has big shoes to fill, but Elon Musk is already beginning to fill them. A lot will depend on Musk’s ability to see his grand visions come to fruition. First, he must complete his “Secret Master Plan for Tesla,” which includes the creation of a popular mass market electric car; and second, his vision of making space rockets reusable just like modern day jets.
One day, he may even achieve his life’s mission of dying on Mars, but as he describes it, “Just not on impact.”
Last month, I interviewed Tesla Motors and SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk at the Computer History Museum in Silicon Valley and asked him what he’s learned from Steve Jobs and whether, in his view, innovation is plateauing. We also discussed how he felt about critics like his hero Neil Armstrong who spoke out against SpaceX and the commercialization of space. His answers may surprise you.
Here’s a transcript of our conversation that starts @51:19. (Page down for more transcripts)
Alison van Diggelen: I’d like to move on to innovation and motivation.There’s been a lot of talk lately about that fact that innovation is leveling off, we’re not making dramatic increases or improvements in innovation, like we did when the plane was invented…do you agree with that?
Elon Musk: No I don’t agree with that. We’ve seen huge improvements in the Internet, and new things…In recent years: Twitter, Facebook being pretty huge…when people thought the Internet was done. Some of the things we’re doing like electric cars are a new thing. And I do think there are some pretty significant breakthroughs in genomics. We’re getting and better and better at decoding genomes and being able to write genetics. That’s going to be a huge, huge area. There’s likely to be breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence…and I suspect we will even see the flying car…
Alison van Diggelen: Is that going to be an Elon Musk production?
Elon Musk: No.
Alison van Diggelen: Are you going to let someone else do that?
Elon Musk: Yeah, Well, I think…someone else is doing that.
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@1.00.30 On Steve Jobs
Alison van Diggelen: I’d now…let’s move on to focus on Silicon Valley. Steve Jobs was and is a wonderful Silicon Valley icon. Is he someone you’ve admired and what have you learned from Steve’s life and work?
Elon Musk: Well he’s certainly someone I’ve admired. Although I did try to talk to him once at a party and he was super rude to me… But I don’t think it was me, I think it was par for the course.
Alison van Diggelen: I don’t think you were the first.
Elon Musk: No not the first. No. I was actually there with… an old friend… Larry Page. I’ve known Larry since before he got venture funding for Google. He was the one who introduced me to Steve Jobs. It’s not like I was tugging on his coat (saying), ‘please talk to me.’ But obviously he was an incredible guy and made fantastic products. The guy had a certain magic about him that was really inspiring. I think that’s really great.
Alison van Diggelen: Is it that magic that you try to emulate?
Elon Musk: No, I think Steve Jobs was way cooler than I am.
@1.02.00
Alison van Diggelen: So I’d like to get inside your head a little bit. When you come up with an idea, do you doodle it on a pad of paper, or do you get your iPad out and take notes? I mean, when you come up with something new, a new rocket design or whatever it is, how does that manifest itself? Could we see you being creative?
Elon Musk: It’s somewhat clichéd but it happens a lot in the shower. I don’t know what it is about showers. (audience whistles). I know, exactly. Get the camera. (laughter) Like, yeah. I just kind of stand there in the shower and ..
Alison van Diggelen: So you have long showers…create lots of ideas…
Elon Musk: I do actually (laughter). Long showers. It sounds wrong…
Alison van Diggelen: So there’s no iPad in the shower?
Elon Musk: …Not to mention the Burning Man epiphanies. Those are huge. And then there are some times late at night when I’ve been thinking about something and I can’t sleep then I’ll be up for several hours pacing around the house, thinking about things. Occasionally I might sketch something or send myself an email…(see FD)
Alison van Diggelen: So we have a question from the audience. Who inspires you or do you have a mentor?
Elon Musk: I don’t have a mentor, though I do try to get feedback from as many people as possible. I have friends and I ask them what I think of this that and the other thing. Larry Page is a good friend of mine…I value his advice a lot, and I have many other good friends, so I think it’s good to solicit feedback, particularly negative feedback actually. Obviously people don’t love the idea of giving you negative feedback, unless it’s on blogs…they do that.
Alison van Diggelen: How do you deal with negative feedback, because you get some tough criticism, especially with SpaceX, you had incumbents like Neil Armstrong even, speaking out and saying this is wrong, you know. We don’t want commercial companies in space, it’s not a place for commerce. So how did you deal with that and how with naysayers in general, because you’ve had a lot.
Elon Musk: Yeah, that was kind of troubling, cos growing up Neil Armstrong was kind of a hero. So it kind of sucks to…
Alison van Diggelen: Knife in the back…?
Elon Musk: Yeah, that’s a bit of a blow. I think he was somewhat manipulated by other interests. I don’t know if he knew quite what he was saying in those congressional hearings.
Continues…
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Want to continue reading the transcript? Here’s the final part of the interview:
As the nation anticipates a “climate friendly” State of the Union speech from President Obama Tuesday, let’s take a look at what one of Silicon Valley’s most successful innovators and job creators has to say about the government’s role in climate change and innovation.
Last month, I interviewed Tesla Motors and SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk at the Computer History Museum in Silicon Valley and asked him what specifically President Obama can do to stimulate the economy. He acknowledges that presidents can only do so much, saying,”You’re actually like the captain of a very huge ship and have a small rudder.”
Musk argues that too much government regulation can stand in the way of innovation, especially in the auto industry; and is generally in favor of minimal government intervention in the economy. On climate change, however, he was forceful and described our oil based, carbon intensive economy as creating a “crazy chemical experiment on the atmosphere” with likely catastrophic consequences. He concludes that taxing carbon is vital.
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Here is the transcript of our conversation:
Alison van Diggelen: Do you feel the government is standing in the way of innovation at all?
Elon Musk: Well sometimes…I don’t think the government tends to stand in the way of innovation but it can over-regulate industries to the point where innovation becomes very difficult. The auto industry used to be a great hotbed of innovation at the beginning of the 20th Century. But now there are so many regulations that are intended to protect consumers…I mean the body of regulation for cars could fill this room. It’s just crazy how much regulation there is. Down to what the headlamps are supposed to be like. They even specify some of the elements of the user interface on the dashboard…some of these are completely anachronistic because they’re related back to the days when you had a little light that would illuminate an image. So we had to reserve space on the instrument panel of the Model S for where all of the indicators…that a car would have…you know you’ve got these little lights…
Alison van Diggelen: Check engine or whatever…
Elon Musk: Yeah…all these little things. There is a whole bunch of them. ‘We can’t have anything else in that space. ‘ But how about we have one space and render a different graphic? ‘Oh no, because people are expecting to see them in this space.’ Nobody is expecting to see them in that space.
Alison van Diggelen: So you can’t argue with these regulations?
Elon Musk: Well you can argue with them, but not with much success. (laughter). You can actually get these things changed, but it takes ages. Like one of the things we’re trying to get is: why should you have side mirrors if you could have say, tiny video cameras and have them display the image inside the car? But there are all these regulations saying you have to have side mirrors. I went and met with the Secretary of Transport and like, can you change this regulation…? Still nothing has happened and that was two years ago.
Alison van Diggelen: So you’re banging your head against the wall…
Elon Musk: We need to get these regulations changed.
Alison van Diggelen: So talking of government, President Obama is obviously trying to do what he can…if you had five minutes with President Obama, what would you advise him for one: stimulating the economy and entrepreneurship and (two) creating jobs. Is there one thing if he could successfully get through that would be a big stimulus?
Elon Musk: I think actually…the reality of being president is that you’re actually like the captain of a very huge ship and have a small rudder (laughter). If there was a button that a president could push that said ‘economic prosperity,’ they’d be hitting that button real fast…
Alison van Diggelen: Full steam ahead.
Elon Musk: You can imagine…the speed of light, how fast they’d be pressing that button. That’s called the re-election button. I’m not sure how much the president can really do. I’m generally a fan of minimal government interference in the economy. The government should be the referee but not the player. And there shouldn’t be too many referees. But there is an exception, which is when there’s an un-priced externality, such as the CO2 capacity of the oceans and atmosphere. So, when you have an un-priced externality, then the normal market mechanisms don’t work and then it’s the government’s role to intervene in a way that’s sensible. The best way to intervene is to assign a proper price to the common good that is being consumed.
Alison van Diggelen: So you’re saying there should be a tax on gas?
Elon Musk: There should be a tax on carbon. If the bad thing is carbon accumulation in the atmosphere, then there needs to be a tax on that. And then you can get rid of all subsidies and all, everything else. It seems logical that there should be a tax on things that are most likely to be bad. That’s why we tax cigarettes and alcohol. These are probably bad for you, certainly cigarettes are (laughter). So you want to err on the side of taxing things that are probably bad. And not tax things that are good. Given that there is a need to gather tax to pay for federal government…We should shift the tax burden to bad things and then adjust the tax on bad things according to whatever’s going to result in behavior that we think is beneficial for the future.
I think currently that what we’re doing right now, which is mining and burning trillions of tons of hydrocarbons that used to be buried very deep underground, and now we’re sticking them in the atmosphere and running this crazy chemical experiment on the atmosphere. And then we’ve got the oil and gas companies that have ungodly amounts of money. You can’t expect them to roll over and die. They don’t do that. What they much prefer to do is spend enormous amounts of money lobbying and running bogus ad campaigns to preserve their situation.
It’s a lot like tobacco companies in the old days. They used to run these ad campaigns with doctors, guys pretending they were doctors, essentially implying that smoking is good for you, and having pregnant mothers on ads, smoking.
Alison van Diggelen: Do you have a message for the climate change skeptics and the big oil people?
Elon Musk: Well, as far as climate change skeptics…I believe in the scientific method and one should have a healthy skepticism of things in general…if you pursue things from a scientific standpoint, you always look at things probabilistically and not definitively…so a lot of times if someone is a skeptic in the science community, what they’re saying is that they’re they’re not sure that it’s 100% certain that this is the case. But that’s not the point. The point is, to look at it from the other side. To say: What’s the percentage chance that this could be catastrophic for some meaningful percentage of earth’s population? Is it greater than 1%? Is it even 1%? If it is even 1%, why are we running this experiment?
Alison van Diggelen: You’ve called it Russian roulette. We’re playing Russian roulette with the atmosphere…
Elon Musk: We’re playing Russian roulette and as each year goes by we’re loading more rounds in the chamber. It’s not wise. And what makes it super insane is that we’re going to run out of oil anyway. It’s not like there’s some infinite oil supply. We are going to run out of it. We know we have to get to a sustainable means of transportation, no matter what. So why even run the experiment? It’s the world’s dumbest experiment (applause).
Read more Transcript Excerpts from our 2013 interview:
Elon Musk: In the distant future, people may outlaw driving cars. It’s too dangerous. You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine. [laughter]
Alison van Diggelen: So talking of government, President Obama is obviously trying to do what he can…if you had five minutes with President Obama, what would you advise him for one: stimulating the economy and entrepreneurship and (two) creating jobs. Is there one thing if he could successfully get through that would be a big stimulus?
