This week, I listened live to Tesla’s latest earnings call and was gobsmacked at Elon Musk’s audacious new goal to build half a million cars per year by 2018.
“This is based off the tremendous demand received for the Model 3, which I think is actually a fraction of the ultimate demand, when people fully understand what the car’s capable of….Tesla is going to be hell-bent on becoming the best manufacturer on earth.” Elon Musk
But how on earth is Tesla going to perform this ambitious ramp up in production? It’s a 1000% increase in Tesla’s 2015 production level (approx. 50,000 Model S and Xs). Here’s one more clue from Elon Musk, at the end of the conference call:
“We believe that there’s more potential for innovation in manufacturing, than there is in the design of the car by a long shot.” Elon Musk
Tesla’s Alexis Georgeson took me inside the Tesla factory last week to share some insights as to how this “mission impossible” just might be done.
BBC Host, Rory Cellan-Jones: This week, the entrepreneur behind the Tesla cars made an extraordinary promise to his investors. He said his company would manufacture half a million cars a year by 2018. Given the fact that Tesla has missed much smaller production targets in the past this seemed, well, brave. But as Alison van Diggelen reports from Silicon Valley, Elon Musk is confident that this time, things will be different.
Alison van Diggelen: Tesla Motors astounded the auto industry last month when it received over 400,000 reservations (325,000 in the first week) for its new Model 3, an “affordable” all-electric car. In response, CEO Elon Musk just announced a production goal of half a million cars by 2018.
Elon Musk: My desk is at the end of the production line…I have a sleeping bag in the conference room… which I use quite frequently. The whole team is super focused on achieving rate and quality at the target cost, so I feel very confident in us achieving that goal.
Alison van Diggelen: I visited the Tesla factory in Silicon Valley to find out how they can deliver on time and in such huge numbers. Though beloved by fans, Tesla is also notorious for production delays.
Last year, the company spent over 1.5 Billion dollars in capital. Its cash burn-rate looks unsustainable. With General Motors coming out with a longer range electric car later this year and other competitors hot on their wheels, Tesla is under pressure to deliver, and fast.
Alexis Georgeson: There’s already been one major reorg since Model S production started in 2012. The original end of line used to be right here… we straightened out the line so we could expand and increase production.
Alison van Diggelen: That’s Alexis Georgeson, a Tesla spokesperson who explains in great detail the 7-day process that transforms a roll of aluminium into a shiny electric car. The two-week reorg and retooling in 2014 means that Tesla now has over 1000 state of the art robots, which helped ramp-up production by over 100% last year.
A separate production line for the Model 3 is planned and hard lessons from earlier models will help speed up their manufacture, especially more in-house capabilities and more thorough supplier validation. Musk says the new Model 3 will be designed to be easy to make.
Alexis Georgeson: We’re constantly learning and innovating. The great thing about Tesla is that so much is in-house and that we are so nimble.
Alison van Diggelen: I asked about the long delays in the Model X, largely caused by the flashy Falcon Wing doors.
What’s the trade off between hubris and caution at Tesla?
Alexis Georgeson: Our mission is not just to accelerate sustainable energy and transportation …You’re creating new features that haven’t been done before in the auto industry. With that comes natural growing pains…
Georgeson: The thing that’s missed there is the capital-intensive nature of the auto industry. Especially for a company like Tesla that’s ramping production so quickly…
Alison van Diggelen: Here’s Elon Musk…
Elon Musk: Tesla is hellbent on being the best in manufacturing… We believe that there is more potential for innovation in manufacturing than in design of the car, by a long shot.
Alison van Diggelen: Musk says the first Model 3 deliveries will start in late 2017. If he can prove naysayers wrong again, the majority of Model 3 reservation holders might see their cars coming off the production line in Silicon Valley within the next two years…
Read more Fresh Dialogues reports on Tesla here (scroll down for archives back to 2012)
Last night, I had the pleasure of meeting the talented and influential author, Michael Lewis. You probably know he wrote Moneyball, The Big Short and The Blind Side and has been compared favorably to literary genius, Tom Wolfe. Lewis revealed that he’s almost finished a prequel to his huge bestseller, Moneyball and it will be published in December 2016. Although his publishing schedule precluded him from accepting an in-depth interview with me last night, he did agree to one in December. So, not a strike out, just a delay in play.
Details of the prequel are under tight wraps, but I did learn this: it’s been eight years in the making, and he’s completed about 45,000 words (about 150 pages). He’ll send his trusty editor at Norton the remaining chunks every six weeks and is on schedule for a September completion. He says “once it’s on track, it’s like a freight train.”
The topic? It’s about sports (possibly just football) and analyzes the distribution of pay across teams. As with most of his books, it’s a character driven story, featuring people who surprised him and are in a situation that forces them to reveal their true character. The only other clue he shared was that he had access to the “brain trust” of the San Francisco 49ers.
On The Big Short Movie: Lewis described it as “a relief” to see how good the movie was and praised the talent and craftsmanship of the production team. He called out Christian Bale for his exceptional performance as Michael Burry, the Silicon Valley financial whiz, whose character “led us through the jungle of complexity.” Lewis explained that Bale spent a day with Burry and was able to channel his breathing and his awkward mannerisms with incredible accuracy throughout the movie.
Lewis also praised the straight to camera moments, especially Margot Robbie in the bathtub and lamented the production limitations of being a mere writer. He didn’t feel ownership of the movie as he’d sold the rights, and didn’t sit on the set since he considered it “a pointless exercise.” He was, however, involved in promoting the movie with the cast and says they’re really “not that good looking,” with the exception of (gorgeous) Brad Pitt. In Lewis’s opinion, their star appeal is more to do with their force of personality and talent. He added, “I’m not a good judge of male beauty.” That got a huge laugh from the audience.
On Politics: Lewis considers Donald Trump a bully and that the race would now be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, if Trump hadn’t bullied him so hard during the early Republican debates. He thinks that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders wouldn’t be candidates today without the financial crisis of 2008 and mass outrage that followed, with the widespread feeling that the financial system is rigged. He asks: “Is this the beginning of something or the end of something?”
It’s a very good question indeed. He even alluded to a dystopian future where fame rules supreme and the Kardashians become viable leaders of the modern world. A true horror indeed.
Lewis doesn’t like to make predictions, but when pushed, he admits that he thinks Trump will get the Republican nomination and he’ll lose spectacularly to Hillary because “he does dumb things.”
On the Panama Papers: Lewis thinks the biggest leak of the century won’t have big reverberations in the US. He added, “You can go to Delaware to hide money…wait for the Delaware Papers!”
On Upcoming Projects: Lewis isworking on a screenplay pilot re Wall Street in the 20’s; a book on President Obama that explores how leaders make decisions (based on the fabulously insightful Vanity Fair profile); and a book for kids about money: how to make it, use it, and the “social power of money.”
Do check back here in December for my interview with Michael Lewis!
Many thanks to Celebrity Forum founder, Dick Henning for the kind invitation backstage.
Last night, I joined the BBC’s Business Matters to discuss the launch of Tesla’s Model 3 and the remarkable 325,000 deposits it garnered in just seven days. Reports suggest that even Tesla CEO, Elon Musk was surprised by the number of people prepared to pay $1000 to get in line for this mass market electric car. It appears that his “Tesla secret masterplan” had been intentionally leaked. Does this mean that the Model 3 represents an iPhone moment for the auto industry?
Here is a transcript of our conversation and a longer version of the report which aired on the BBC World Service. The transcript has been edited for length and clarity. Listen to the podcast here: Tesla discussion starts at 26:46
Roger Hearing: The Tesla 3…is that the way forward for electric cars? Now Alison, you’ve been having a look at the new Tesla…can you enlighten us on that?
Alison van Diggelen: Last Thursday, Tesla finally unveiled its “affordable” mass market car, the Model 3. Hours before it was actually unveiled, thousands of Tesla fans stood in line, sight unseen, to reserve one. This was a phenomenon, especially here in Silicon Valley where Tesla is headquartered and where they actually build the cars. I talked with several people who waited in line, and one Tesla fan who drives a Tesla (Roadster) but is just not interested in the Model 3…The key question now is: can Tesla deliver?
Small business owner, Tom Poppitz was one of thousands in Silicon Valley, to line up at one of Tesla’s six showrooms here. Each customer was prepared to put down a $1000 deposit for a car they’d never seen.
Poppitz:There was a lot of very well educated people in that line…they were going to buy this thing, no matter what it looked like…they were excited about it changing the world, changing the auto industry…
He likened it to an Apple product release, only better because it was sight unseen.
But what motivated Poppitz to get in line?
Poppitz: I’m not generally excited about cars…I’m a self-professed tightwad. The value proposition for this car is so completely different: frees you from buying gas… but my primary motivation: It changes macroeconomics in a major scale. Transitioning to electric cars can cure our trade deficits, it can have a quantum effect on our economy….
But not everyone is so optimistic that Tesla can actually deliver a world-changing product. I spoke with Anton Wahlman, a tech analyst.
He says Tesla’s two greatest challenges will be achieving profitability at $35,000 – where margins are razor thin – and beating some tough competition.
Wahlman: The unsexy factor in the whole equation…the product can be beautiful and all, but getting to an acceptable level of profitability is an extremely significant challenge.
He points to the brutal competition Tesla will face by the time it delivers its first Model 3’s in late 2017/and 2018. The Chevy Bolt hits showrooms later this year, and BMW, Audi, Jaguar, and others are in fast pursuit.
Walhman predicts that Tesla may face the same fate that Nissan did in 2010, when its all-electric Leaf started shipping …Many reservation holders demanded their deposits back.
Wahlman: (Nissan) They had zero competition… Tesla already has some competition …that will intensify greatly in ‘17 and by 2018, it’ll be in full bloom.
He acknowledges Tesla has a more attractive product than Nissan and its charging network is a moat-like barrier to competitors. But the Model 3 is not for every Tesla fan.
Silicon Valley techie, Carlos Morales drives a Roadster, Tesla’s limited edition sports car. He loves the quiet acceleration, and speed of his Roadster, but wasn’t prepared to reserve a Model 3. Why not?
Morals: I see a Roadster once a month… 300,000 Model 3’s have been reserved. There’s going to be a lot of them, that’s wonderful for the planet and Tesla. But it’s not going to be as exclusive.
There’s always going to be a class, a group of people who are looking at that.
Despite questions of reliability and servicing challenges pouring cold water on last week’s euphoria, Tesla true believers feel they were part of automotive history. Will this be an iPhone moment for the auto industry? At least 270,000 people hope so.
[Report ends]
Alison van Diggelen: Carlos speaks for probably a small segment of people who won’t be attracted by the Model 3. But as of this morning they’ve now had over 325,000 willing to put down a $1000 deposit…that level of interest is unprecedented in the auto industry. A lot of people are drawing analogies with the iPhone. There’s a euphoria about this new product…the difference is: people are going to have to wait about two years before the car is actually delivered.
Roger Hearing: That’s a very long time, isn’t it? Isn’t that a lack of attraction in itself?
Alison van Diggelen: The analyst, Anton Wahlman emphasized that it’s not that these hardcore fans aren’t prepared to wait…but in the two year period, they may be tempted off their deposits. Wahlman pointed out all the competition. Jaguar is even coming out with an electric vehicle, Audi…the Chevy Bolt will actually be in dealerships this Christmas. I did speak with one big Tesla fan – Washington Post columnist, Vivek Wadhwa – and asked him if he’d be tempted by the Bolt. He said it was like comparing a rotary phone with the iPhone. That’s the level of fanboy-ism there is in Silicon Valley.
Madhavan Narayanan: We’re not discussing cars anymore. We’re discussing new patented technologies. If Tesla has patented technology that makes it distinguishable and superior to other electric cars, we’re talking about a paradigm shift, not simply a better car.
Roger Hearing: The big thing here in Britain is where you can actually get the charge? It’s fine in big urban areas… and for short journeys. Would that be true in America where there are a lot of very long journeys and presumably not a lot of electrical stopping places along the way?
Alison van Diggelen: Yes, that is a big issue. Anton Wahlman pointed out that Tesla has this (proprietary) network for these long distance drives. They have hundreds of superchargers, (fast chargers) all over the U.S. They’ve introduced them in Europe too for people doing long journeys in their Tesla Model S. Wahlman described this like as a moat around Tesla’s business model and no other electric vehicle has something similar. So that could actually be an advantage (for Tesla). These other companies will have to catch up. With mass market, compared to a luxury car, there is a point: most luxury car buyers own homes and they can charge at home. If you’re living in an apartment, then that’s a whole different thing. That’s definitely a challenge, but Elon Musk is quite the visionary and he is aware of this and they are planning to double or triple their Tesla charging network.
Roger Hearing: That must be a problem in India, Madhavan, where do you charge these electric cars?
Madhavan Narayanan: Let’s look at what happened with cellphones. The paradigm of Tesla is strikingly similar. You have cell towers everywhere and they carry the signals. Why not set up a charging station network? To use Silicon Valley’s favorite expression:I see an electric vehicle ecosystem emerging. There will be new winners and losers in the game.
Roger Hearing: An electric car ecosystem? That’s a concept to carry around, as we go into what does seem to be the electric car era.
This week, artificial intelligence (AI) reached a significant milestone. For the first time, Google’s DeepMind unit beat the legendary champion of Go, a highly complex board game. Machines are now being built with self-learning mechanisms that simulate the neural network of the human brain. What does this mean for the future of AI and its ability to replace humans in the workplace? The future just got closer.
Sebastian Thrun is well known for being a pioneer in artificial intelligence and autonomous cars, but is now laser focused on making sure online education bridges the skills gap, via his company, Udacity. Here’s what he said recently about AI:
“Udacity is my response to the development of AI. The mission I have to educate everybody is really an attempt to delay what AI will eventually do to us, because I honestly believe people should have a chance.” Sebastian Thrun*
I sat down with Thrun at the company’s headquarters in Silicon Valley to explore his grand vision and audacious promises. Last year, Udacity raised $105 million in venture funding, based on a valuation of $1 billion. Is this another overpriced Silicon Valley unicorn or is the value justified?
First, a little back story: In 2012, Thrun was astounded at the massive number of people signing up for his Stanford AI course online course: 160,000 in all, mostly from outside the United States. He quickly realized that online education has the potential to make learning affordable and reach millions globally.
“Nothing has more potential to unlock a billion more brains to solve the world’s biggest problems,” wrote Tom Friedman in 2013. But of course, his and Thrun’s rosy predictions couldn’t happen overnight. The online learning business had some serious teething problems with high drop out rates, and dismal failure rates. But today, the future of online education is looking brighter.
There are now countless online education companies globally. The big three are: Coursera (a Stanford startup) which now boasts 15 million students; EdX (affiliated with MIT and Harvard) with over 5 million users; and Udacity, 4 million.
Since Udacity’s high profile failure at San Jose State, the company has refocused its online courses and recently partnered with Google, AT&T and Amazon to design “nanodegrees” tailored to the needs of tech companies. Thrun is so bullish about the market value of these 4-12 month nanodegrees, which offer project based learning, that he’s offering a money-back job guarantee.
“For certain Nanodegree programs we’re offering all your tuition back unless we or you find yourself a job within the first 6 months of graduation. For the student, the education is basically free. … These are jobs that pay $80,000 or more, maybe $120,000 in Silicon Valley. With the first month’s salary they can recoup all tuition or we just pay them tuition back…“ Sebastian Thrun, CEO Udacity
Here are more highlights from my conversation with Sebastian Thrun:
On Redefining Education
I think education has to shrink: We have to stop thinking of education as a four or six year investment you can only afford once in your life. We have think of education as a lifelong thing, to shrink the size of our degrees and make education a daily habit, the same way we brush our teeth every day. We have to redefine what education really means.
On Access to Education
Elite colleges like Stanford are extremely inaccessible. They’re failing in their mission to provide access. The Udacity recipe is exactly the opposite – we want to reach everyone and have no admission hurdle. We want to be able to educate people. We do this today in Ghana, in Sub Saharan Africa, in Bangladesh, in China, around the world. If we do this, we can have a substantial impact on the world’s GDP because so much talent is under utilized because of lack of education. If we give people in Syria the same chances as kids in America have, it’s going to be spectacular.
On Persuading Skeptics
The question is still open how much a nanodegree will become gold standard…this takes time. But some companies earmark jobs specifically for us, give us preferential treatment. Google even invites the top nanodegree finishers on campus in Mountain View to meet their recruiters, which they don’t do with other universities….
And others are still skeptical. People are hired on conventional credentials and many of our students are career shifters. They don’t have the 20 years of history that a seasoned person has.
Last year, Marchisio got a promoted from customer service to “web solutions” engineering at Google after completing Udacity’s nanodegree. She said of her 6-month intensive program: “It’s industry relevant, fun…maybe I’m just a nerd but I really enjoy spending my weekends working through programming materials.”
Marchisio adds, “I’d guess there are more women in a Udacity program than there would be in an academic course…an online environment feels more safe…less social pressure. You can try things on your own, make mistakes and not feel embarrassed about it.”
On Udacity’s China Expansion
China has 20 million college students. It’s huge. It has a thriving new middle class and can’t keep up with brick and mortar university buildup to meet the demands of these people.
I want to go there and tell them look: You can become a Silicon Valley trained Android iOS engineer, a data scientist, a cyber security engineer, even a self driving car engineer for almost no money in about half a year.
Note: Udacity currently has an office in China and plans to roll out its learning platform, by replicating Google tools and building its own server farm in the second quarter of 2016.
On his Moonshot, 50 Year Vision
Conventional degrees will be gone. We’ll abandon the idea of education first, and then work.
I see people starting work straight out of high school and bringing experiences, deficiencies, desires back into education. We’ll have a life where education and work is on all the time. The old fashioned – you get born, ed, work, retire and die is obsolete. We have to do all these things at the same time, with the exception of death of course!
We have to learn to play, to get educated. Wehave think of life as a process, not as an accomplishment, but have a growth mindset for our lives. That will be the case because 50 years from now, things will be moving so insanely fast that to stay current, a college education will expire faster than its course.
***
In conclusion, it looks like Udacity has found a sustainable business model by focusing on the IT job market. The company currently has about 11,000 students enrolled in its nanodegree programs, each paying approximately $200/month, producing an estimated annual revenue of over $26 million. If Thrun can continue to drive rapid growth, compete effectively against the growing competition and replicate the company’s current success as it expands in China, then perhaps that $1 billion valuation doesn’t look quite so make-believe.
*Interesting to note that although Thrun offers online education as a way to “delay” the massive job losses that AI will eventually produce, Udacity’s top listed nanodegree is…you guessed it: machine learning. Otherwise known as AI.
As any loyal Fresh Dialogues follower knows, we seldom cover politics, but given Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable rise in popularity, he can no longer be ignored. Trump’s racist rhetoric against Mexican immigrants compelled me to explore the reaction of the Mexican American community here in Silicon Valley. One of the leading Mexican Americans in tech, Diana Alberran Chicas, put aside her frustration and issued this invitation to Donald Trump:
“Come out to Silicon Valley and meet with a lot of these prominent Mexican Americans that are actually pushing for innovation in Silicon Valley,” Diana Alberran Chicas
BBC Host Jon Bithrey: One of the most important dates in the race to become the U.S. President is upon us. On Tuesday, Americans in a dozen states go to the polls…Now Alison, you’re in California. Talk to us about how Donald Trump is viewed there.
Alison van Diggelen: He’s burned some bridges, let’s say. Immigration has become a scalding hot issue in the United States and in California. Mexican immigrants are getting the brunt of the vitriol, despite that fact that there’s been a net migration of Mexicans out of the US since 2009. My report begins with Donald Trump speaking at a rally last year.
Donald Trump: “When Mexico sends its people…they’re not sending their best… they’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime…they’re rapists and some I assume are good people…”
Let’s meet some Mexican immigrants in Silicon Valley.
Victor Arellano is in the gardening business. But not what you might think. He runs a thriving landscape gardening business that employs about 20 people and he’s building his dream house on 7 acres in Silicon Valley. Arellano would like to see Trump apologize…
Victor: …to all the Mexicans he has offended…98% of the Mexicans that come over here…they only want to work and try to make a living. Sometimes it really makes you upset.
They come and they do the most hardest work.
I put ads in the paper…it’s just Mexicans who apply for the job. I’ve never had an American who says: hey, I wanna start working as a laborer.
Arellano was a math teacher in Guadalajara and now serves a demanding clientele, many of whom work for Silicon Valley tech companies.
Victor: There’s two kinds of Americans – the ones that see that this country was formed by immigrants and then everybody is doing their best to make the country better.
And there is people, they don’t want to work, and they blame that they are not having the best car or the best house to the immigrants. Most of the jobs that the immigrants do are jobs that Americans don’t wanna do.
Diana: I’m very proud to say I’m Mexican American and both cultures have had a big impact on who I am and that I represent both countries very proudly.
How does Albarran Chicas respond to Trump’s anti-Mexican insults?
Diana: My invitation would be to come out to Silicon Valley and meet with a lot of these prominent Mexican Americans that are actually pushing for innovation in Silicon Valley…changing the ways companies here are functioning and working…He needs to be surrounded by people that are making a difference, that are influential.
Meet Guillermo Galindo, a composer and artist from Mexico City who moved here in 1992. This month, his exhibition “Border Cantos” (a collaboration with photographer Richard Misrach) begins a national tour at the San Jose Museum of Art, in the heart of Silicon Valley. It documents the human tragedy of the US-Mexico border.
[Atmos: Sounds of percussion, strings, Guillermo composition]
Alison: Is there something you’d like visitors to your exhibition to go home with…a thought, a feeling?
Guillermo: I’d like them to resonate with it…take that home and that is a seed that is going to grow with them…that improves the conditions of people crossing the border and the treatment that immigrants have in the US and all over the world.
It’s totally a global message. It extends in the macro and in the micro, no? There are borders between us as people and there are borders that extend through nations.
Alison: What would you like to happen to those borders between people and countries?
Guillermo: I would like to build bridges instead of borders.
[Atmos: Guillermo music]
END
Find out more
The New Yorker: Is the Mexican Government Finally Fighting Back Against Donald Trump?
John Oliver responds to Donald Trump: “You are either a racist of you are pretending to be”
On Politics: Lewis considers Donald Trump a bully and that the race would now be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, if Trump hadn’t bullied him so hard during the early Republican debates. He thinks that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders wouldn’t be candidates today without the financial crisis of 2008 and mass outrage that followed, with the widespread feeling that the financial system is rigged. He asks: “Is this the beginning of something or the end of something?”
Poppitz: There was a lot of very well educated people in that line…they were going to buy this thing, no matter what it looked like…they were excited about it changing the world, changing the auto industry…
Morals: I see a Roadster once a month… 300,000 Model 3’s have been reserved. There’s going to be a lot of them, that’s wonderful for the planet and Tesla. But it’s not going to be as exclusive.
Madhavan Narayanan: We’re not discussing cars anymore. We’re discussing new patented technologies. If Tesla has patented technology that makes it distinguishable and superior to other electric cars, we’re talking about a paradigm shift, not simply a better car.
Here are more highlights from my conversation with Sebastian Thrun:
Victor Arellano is in the gardening business. But not what you might think. He runs a thriving 
Meet 
