Climate One‘sGreg Dalton brought together a pair of climate experts yesterday at the Commonwealth Club to discuss the “Great Disruption” – Is it the end of the world as we know it? What will happen to the global economy when the world stops denying the realities of climate change?
Australian environmental business expert Paul Gilding, and Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, Richard Heinberg shared their wisdom in a lively dialogue with Dalton. Gilding’s latest book is The Great Disruption and describes how to fight-and win-what he calls The One Degree War to prevent catastrophic warming of the earth. It has even received a favorable review by Tom Friedman in his New York Times column. Heinberg’s tenth book is The End of Growth and describes exactly why this decade will be worse than the Great Depression; he predicts future global growth will be a zero sum game thanks to resource, climate and financial limits. Despite the rather apocalyptic theme of both authors, the near capacity audience was treated to some upbeat comments from Gilding coupled with some more cautionary responses from Heinberg. Here are some of the highlights:
On Change
“People’s ability to change is quite impressive – witness World War 2- we can end the denial and decide on a different future…the debate is how to act not whether to act.” Paul Gilding.
“During WW2, the enemy was visible. The U.S. has a larger capacity for denial. We will have to hit a wall before seeing change…it”s like a slow motion crash.” Richard Heinberg.
On Carbon Tax
“In Australia, a carbon tax is going through Parliament. The price is low…but every balance sheet will soon show the cost of carbon. (In OZ) The debate is over.” Paul Gilding.
On the Trigger
“The price of energy, food and transport will be the trigger point. Government must put in place the framework for change.” Paul Gilding.
On Clean Tech
“Exciting things are happening in renewables. Solar will be cheaper than coal within a decade. Then the game changes dramatically.” Paul Gilding
What a stimulating way to spend your lunch hour. Thanks to Greg Dalton for orchestrating a memorable – if sobering – event.
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On the Eve of Earth Day, it’s telling to look at the green motivations of one of Silicon Valley’s leaders in solar technology: CEO of Akeena Solar, Barry Cinnamon. He’s been a solar advocate since the 1970’s when he studied the science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); however, he’s emphatic in his belief: economics trumps environmental arguments for going solar. So much so, that Cinnamon chose to avoid the color green in his company logo and vehicles.
What motivated Cinnamon to explore solar energy in the 1970’s?
“In the 1970’s we had the energy crisis and …(President) Jimmy Carter said ‘the energy crisis is the moral equivalent of war.’ …there was no environmental consciousness about fossil fuels being bad; nobody had ever heard of Green House Gases…We were all worried about nuclear winter.”
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On becoming a green entrepreneur
“It was a really FEEL GOOD THING….We knew we were doing the right thing for the environment…”
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On the economics of going solar
“Customers want to do it for the environment or for our country’s energy independence….but if the numbers don’t pencil out, they almost never do it…you’ve got to make a decent economic case.”
. How does “belief” in Global Warming alter the sales pitch?
“Some people don’t ‘believe’ it, and it’s a religious thing…’green’ works well in the Bay Area….but (elsewhere) customers would avoid a company who’s main pitch is green…but if you hit them with the economic argument or the energy independence argument – we don’t need to buy any energy from the Persian Gulf – it works just fine.”
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Could there be a repeat of the 1970’s boom then bust in alternative energy?
“In the 70’s/early 80’s, the crisis went away, tax credits went away…if energy prices suddenly plummeted again….it’ll happen again. We don’t have the political will to artificially support oil or gas prices….(but) because the world demand for oil and gas is so high and the supply is generally limited…economics is going to reduce the chances that it will happen again…but it’s not impossible.”
Fresh Dialogues(TM) is an interview series with a green focus: Fresh Questions, Fresh Answers. This video interview took place at Foothill College Celebrity Forum on April 1, 2010, just one week before Justice Stevens announced his retirement. Check out the new Fresh Dialogues YouTube Channelmore exclusive interviews.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN:Hello and welcome. Today on Fresh Dialogues: Jeffrey Toobin.
Jeffrey – thank you so much for joining me on Fresh Dialogues. Let’s go on to your specialty: The Supreme Court. In 2009, they decided against environmentalists in a lot of cases…
JEFFREY TOOBIN: Six out of six.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: Yes. What are your thoughts on that, moving forward? Is this going to continue…this anti-environmental stance of the Supreme Court?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: I think that the court as currently constituted will likely continue in that direction. I don’t think it’s a particular hostility to the environment per se. I think it is a general sympathy for corporate defendants in all cases, environmental cases being one category of cases where the corporations are the defendants. They are also generally – the conservative majority – fairly hostile to government regulatory efforts…and the environment is one area, not the only area. So if the court stays as it currently is, I think you’ll see a lot more cases like that.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: So would you say, it’s moving more pro-business?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: Clearly
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: And the environment losing out as a result?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: That’s certainly how the environmentalists see it.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: And how do you see it?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: Again, not a field of great expertise of mine, but I see who wins the cases and who loses them. And it’s the polluters who keep winning.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: And what about the future? Justice Stevens is due to retire shortly…
JEFFREY TOOBIN: He hasn’t said so officially but I think he will retire this Spring.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: So how is that going to change things? What are your predictions?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: I think he is a key member of the liberal four on the court, he will likely be replaced by another liberal. So in terms of the outcome of cases in the next few years, probably not a huge impact, but I often like to quote Byron Whitethe late Justice,who said if you change one Justice, you don’t just change one Justice, you change the whole court. If you start to have an energized liberal group of young – by Supreme Court standards -Justices like Sonia Sotomayor, like the next Obama appointee, the wind could start to be at their back. And if Obama gets re-elected, you could see more appointments…so it’s a big deal.
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: And who is your No. 1 candidate for that appointment?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: Elena Kagan, the Solicitor General, former Dean of Harvard Law School. Very much an Obama type person – moderate Democrat, a consensus builder…
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: Do you know if she’s an environmentalist?
JEFFREY TOOBIN: I don’t… I just don’t know. My sense is, it’s just not an issue that has come across her plate a lot…she is someone who has written on administration law, which tends to mean she’s a believer in the power of the Federal Government to regulate. But I wouldn’t…
A – I don’t know what she thinks…and B – I don’t…
A is enough. I don’t know what she thinks about these issues…(laughter)
ALISON VAN DIGGELEN: (laughter) OK. Jeffrey Toobin I really appreciate your taking the time for Fresh Dialogues.
JEFFREY TOOBIN: My pleasure. Nice to see you.
For more Fresh Dialogues Video interviews click here
Last week, President Obama announced a surprise decision to allow oil and gas drilling off the East Coast of the United States. The world was at once outraged andconfused. What many analysts overlooked is that Obama also said in his speech, “For the sake of the planet and our energy independence, we need to begin the transition to cleaner fuels now.” There was much for both sides to analyze and to debate.
I sat down with CNN’s senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobinbefore his Foothill College Celebrity Forum appearance, to try to make sense of Obama’s announcement. Toobin is best-selling author of The Nine(On the secret world of the Supreme Court Justices), and two of the most high profile political controversies: Too Close to Call (the Bush-Gore Presidential Recount) and A Vast Conspiracy (the Clinton-Lewinsky Affair), so I figured he’d provide some good insights into Obama’s latest political strategy. See also Huffington Post coverage
On the Obama Offshore Oil Drilling Announcement
“It’s a bit peculiar frankly…it seems on one level that he’s negotiating with himself…conceding something to the pro-development forces before the negotiations have really begun in earnest…but there may be some larger political game at work…that this shows how accommodating he is… ”
On the Republican Reaction
“Gestures of good faith to Republicans have generally been met over the last year and a half with non responsive actions.”
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On the EPA Regulating Greenhouse Gases as Pollutants
“That’s a campaign promise that Obama appears to be keeping…they have already started the process.”
On Health Care Reform
“It’s a historic moment for Obama, for the country…It’s going to give the Democrats a tremendous shot in the arm for the mid-term elections… This is going to change the country…it’s done.”
Check back soon for Part IIof the Toobin Interview when we discuss the environmental record of the Supreme Court and Toobin’s pick for Justice Stevens’s successor.
For more exclusive interviews check out Fresh Dialogues GREEN INTERVIEW SERIES ARCHIVES or Fresh Dialogues YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Earlier this year, I had the chance to turn the tables on celebrated Forum Host, Michael Krasny, and interview him for Fresh Dialogues. He was surprisingly candid about how how he fights feelings of inadequacy and is driven to prepare thoroughly for each interview. The focus of this segment is the environment and why he has cause for optimism. He explains why he regularly chooses green topics for Forum and sees organizations like Sustainable Silicon Valleyas providing good models for bringing businesses, government and NGOs together to create a greener future. (more…)
